Grant to Develop Life-Saving Early Warning System for Extreme Weather Events

A groundbreaking early warning system for extreme weather events in South Africa is being developed to empower vulnerable communities and healthcare systems in response to the devastating impacts of flooding and associated health risks.

The project, titled ‘Warning system for Extreme weather events, Awareness Technology for Healthcare, Equitable delivery, and Resilience (WEATHER),’ is a multi-partner collaboration involving University of the West of Scotland (UWS), University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN), the Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland (RCSI) Faculty of Nursing and Midwifery and the University of Portsmouth. The project has been awarded a pivotal grant of more than £2 million from the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) to develop the system.

Professor Fiona Henriquez, co-investigator on the WEATHER project and Associate Dean of Research and Innovation in the School of Health and Life Sciences at UWS said: "This is an important project which will support areas in eThekwini, South Africa grappling with increasingly unpredictable weather patterns due to climate change, leaving communities exposed to floods, waterborne diseases, and disrupted healthcare services. 

The joint Principal Investigators (PI’s) on the project Professor Mary Lynch, from UWS and RCSI and Professor Saloshni Naidoo, UKZN, developed the collaboration from their commitment to seeking solutions for mitigating climate change impacts on health and wellbeing along with their vested interest in the project's success which stems from the challenges experienced in the region, due to extreme weather events. 

The project focuses on two vulnerable districts in KwaZulu-Natal, eThekwini and Ugu, collaborating closely with local communities and healthcare providers throughout the research process. This ensures the developed system is culturally sensitive, context-specific, and addresses the unique needs of the target population.

The University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) plays a vital role in the WEATHER project, bringing crucial expertise and local context to the project. Their established connections with communities and healthcare providers in the target districts make UKZN an invaluable partner.

Professor Naidoo from UKZN remarked, “A successful WEATHER project would not only benefit our communities and strengthen the health system but also serve as a valuable model for other regions facing similar climate-related risks, potentially contributing to broader improvements across South Africa and in other low- and middle-income countries.”

Using cutting-edge technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI), the WEATHER project will develop a comprehensive warning system tailored to the needs of affected communities. 

Professor Mary Lynch of UWS & RCSI added, "The WEATHER project will aid in empowering communities to become active participants in building resilience. By working hand-in-hand with local stakeholders, we can ensure the warning system is truly effective and sustainable in the long term.”

Geospatial technologies will collate weather and climate data while AI algorithms will analyse weather, climate and health data to identify patterns and trends which allow for more accurate predictions of flooding and associated health risks. 

Additionally, AI-powered tools will continuously monitor and assess flood risks in real-time, enabling swift interventions to minimise disease outbreaks. Warnings will be shared through a mobile app providing more detailed information, maps, and resources tailored to specific locations and needs and through SMS text messages, ensuring widespread reach even in areas with limited internet access. 

Professor Michael Gebreslasie, Associate Professor at University of KwaZulu-Natal explained: “Geospatial technology offers perspective on evolving weather patterns by visualising historic data and overlaying it with current records and helps to identify significant changes in precipitation and flood risks to human health. 

“Furthermore, it supports the development of predictive models that can forecast future climate scenarios. Informative visualisation shows these developments in ways scientists and non-experts can understand the risk.” 

AI can personalise and tailor alerts through the mobile platform, ensuring critical information reaches the right people at the right time. Integration of AI throughout the project aims to create a more accurate, efficient, and far-reaching warning system, empowering communities to become more resilient in the face of extreme weather events. The system will use the existing mobile phone infrastructure in the communities.

This means warnings will be disseminated through SMS text messages ensuring widespread reach even in areas with limited internet access. There will also be mobile applications which will provide more detailed information, maps, and resources tailored to specific locations and needs.

Professor, Mohammed Zeeshan Shakir, School of Computing, Engineering and Physical Sciences at UWS, said: “We can't change the weather, but we can change how we respond to it. 

“By integrating AI into our warning system, we're empowering healthcare and communities with real-time predictive information, giving them the time they need to prepare and reduce the harm from extreme events.”

Professor David Ndzi, University of Portsmouth, added: "WEATHER embodies the power of collaboration between technology and human expertise.  AI tools amplify our analysis and prediction capabilities, but it's the partnership with local communities that will truly optimise the system and ensure it makes a lasting difference."  

“Climate change is a phenomenon we are witnessing in the real world”, said Professor Serestina Viriri, UKZN: “Extreme weather conditions are experienced in all seasons. It seems like there are no longer defined seasons as we used to know. 

“Rainfall and flood prediction play a crucial role in raising awareness about the potential dangers of extreme weather and enabling people to take proactive mitigating measures. In this project, we aim to explore machine learning techniques to accurately predict extreme rainfall and flooding possibilities using historical and real-time weather data from the southern part of KwaZulu-Natal province”.

The grant from NIHR's Research on Interventions for Global Health Transformation (RIGHT) programme is a crucial step towards building a safer future for vulnerable communities. 

Professor Lynch continued: “Thanks to this support, we can translate innovative ideas into tangible solutions, ultimately empowering people on the frontlines of climate change to face extreme weather events with greater preparedness and resilience."

The multidisciplinary team within the WEATHER project combined with innovative approaches, represents a significant step forward in addressing the challenges posed by extreme weather events in vulnerable communities globally. The project’s success will pave the way for replicating and adapting the system in other regions facing similar climate-related risks.